چکیده:
کشور ایران از مناطق پراستعداد در صنعت گردشگری به شمار میرود و جاذبههای فراوان طبیعی، تاریخی و فرهنگی آن زبانزد خاص و عام است ولی مشکلات متعدد باعث شده علی رغم وجود چنین استعدادهایی سهم کشورمان از درآمدهای صنعت گردشگری بسیار ناچیز باشد. در این میان شهر کلان شهر تبریز با وجود استعدادهای عظیم تاریخی، فرهنگی، اکولوژیکی و... نتوانسته سهم قابل توجه و شایسته خود را در منافع گردشگری شهری به دست آورد. با توجه به خودگردان بودن شهرداری کلانشهر تبریز و ناپایداری منابع درآمدی آن تقویت اقتصاد گردشگری شهری از مهمترین و ضروریترین راهبردهای توسعه شهر تبریز است تا علاوه بر رشد اقتصادی شهر بتوان شهر تبریز را بهعنوان یک شهر جهانی بااستعدادهای فراوان تاریخی و طبیعی معرفی کرد. جهت خروج از این شرایط و بهبود وضعیت گردشگری این کلان شهر باید یک برنامه راهبردی بر اساس واقعیات و آیندههای پیش روی این شهر تهیه شود که اولین قدم در این مسیر شناسایی پیشرانهای حیاتی موثر بر توسعه گردشگری در این شهر است. این مقاله با استفاده از روشهای دلفی و تحلیل اثرات متقاطع و استفاده از نرم افزار میک مک به کشف و شناخت این پیشرانها پرداخته است. این تحقیق از لحاظ هدف توصیفی – تبینی و از لحاظ کاربست نتایج کاربردی است. نتایج نشان میدهد از بین ۳۸ شاخص موثر کشف شده در توسعه گردشگری شهری تبریز ۱۰ شاخص بهعنوان پیشران حیاتی مشخص شدند. در بین پیشرانهای کشف شده پیشران فرهنگ با امتیاز 1107 بالاترین و پیشران تبلیغات با امیتاز 695 کمترین امتیاز را کسب کردهاند. به صورت کلی میتوان گفت وضعیت تحقق پیشرانهای کشف شده در شهر تبریز وضعیت مطلوبی نیست و در صورت توجه به این پیشرانها و اجرای راهبردهای متناسب با این پیشرانها میتوان آینده مطلوبی برای توسعه آتی گردشگری شهر تبریز متصور شد.
Introduction: Today, the tourism industry is considered as one of the appropriate tools and strategies to earn income and prosperity of the economy of governments and nations on the one hand and the development and prosperity of regions in different parts of the world on the other hand; In a way, this industry is the third dynamic and developing economic phenomenon after the oil and automobile industries. Iran is also one of the most talented regions in this field and its many natural, historical and cultural attractions are well-known in general and in particular. Significant resources are not available from it. In the meantime, one of these important and fundamental issues that plays a very important role in the economic development of cities and villages and can lead to improved economic growth and growth by foresight and scenario design. Quality of life is the development of the tourism industry. The existence of various cultural, historical and natural talents for the city of Tabriz along with important tourism events such as Tabriz ۲۰۱۸ and the strong dependence of the urban economy on the tourism economy on the one hand and the complexity of tourism issues on the other makes serious research in tourism trends and Urban tourism future research should be done to determine how these many talents of Tabriz can be used to promote tourism in Tabriz. In addition, due to the autonomy of Tabriz metropolitan municipality and the instability of its revenue sources, strengthening the urban tourism economy The most important and necessary strategies for the development of the city of Tabriz is that in addition to the economic growth of the city, the city of Tabriz can be introduced as a global city with many historical and natural talents. Methodology: Considering that the main purpose of this research is to improve the economic conditions of Tabriz city through the promotion of tourism, this research can be considered as applied research in terms of purpose because the results of this research can be applied in urban tourism management systems. In terms of method, this research is one of the descriptive-analytical methods. The main method used in this research is a variety of common methods of futures research. The work process consists of two general stages. In the first stage, using Delphi technique and questionnaire tools, effective factors and indicators in the development of Tabriz urban tourism were identified. In the second stage, using structural analysis method and using software. Micmac effective factors were evaluated and analyzed and finally key factors were identified. Results and discussion: Based on the Delphi method mentioned, ۳۸ variables in ۶ areas have been identified as effective factors on the development of urban tourism in Tabriz metropolis and then using interaction or structural impact analysis by MICMAC software to extract the main factors affecting the future state of the environment. Were analyzed. According to the numbers of the questionnaire, which is completed as a matrix, the software calculates their relationship and finally considers a numerical point for each factor. Then, based on this score, it ranks the factors directly and indirectly based on its impact and effectiveness. In MICMAC diagram, first, the status of the factors involved in the development of urban tourism in Tabriz metropolis was examined and the system was analyzed in general. According to previous discussions, ۳۸ factors were identified and their effects were weighed. Finally, ۱۰ factors were extracted as key drivers of urban tourism development in Tabriz metropolis, all of which were repeated in both direct and indirect methods. Conclusions: In this research, using the Delphi method, after surveying the relevant experts in urban tourism, the factors and variables involved in tourism have been extracted, and after weighing according to the experts, in Mick Mac structural software, the driving factors for future development. Tabriz urban tourism has been identified. Therefore, the development of tourism in Tabriz for the current and future situation requires considering these key factors in planning. For the development of tourism in Tabriz, all the factors involved, such as a system with elements intertwined, and as a structure, are considered, and the relationships of these factors are measured and the top factors that are more effective are extracted. Thus, among several factors, ten factors are: culture, urban regeneration, climate, transportation infrastructure, architectural landmarks, mass communication infrastructure (Internet), public education, tourism development plans, regulations and incentive policies, and Tourism advertisements on virtual pages are among the key and important factors for the development of tourism in Tabriz city.